I don't understand why Black Swans should be impossible to model effectively. <br> I've read neither "Fooled by Randomness" nor "The Black Swan", so maybe I don't know what a "Black Swan" is, but my naive impression is that they are rare-but-important-events.<br>
If this is the case then mightn't we guesstimate their frequency with some, presumably low, confidence due to their elusive nature, and incorporate that belief into our model?<br>--J<br>P.S.-- I am assuming a Bayesian paradigm.<br>
<div class="gmail_quote">On Sun, Apr 5, 2009 at 12:00 PM, <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:tahoe-dev-request@allmydata.org">tahoe-dev-request@allmydata.org</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt 0.8ex; padding-left: 1ex;">
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Today's Topics:<br>
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1. Re: Josh's would-be GSoC proposal (Shawn Willden)<br>
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Message: 1<br>
Date: Sat, 4 Apr 2009 18:22:09 -0600<br>
From: Shawn Willden <<a href="mailto:shawn-tahoe@willden.org">shawn-tahoe@willden.org</a>><br>
Subject: Re: [tahoe-dev] Josh's would-be GSoC proposal<br>
To: <a href="mailto:tahoe-dev@allmydata.org">tahoe-dev@allmydata.org</a><br>
Message-ID: <<a href="mailto:200904041822.09974.shawn-tahoe@willden.org">200904041822.09974.shawn-tahoe@willden.org</a>><br>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"<br>
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On Friday 03 April 2009 05:25:45 pm zooko wrote:<br>
> Shawn looked at the "The Black Swan", but I think he decided that he<br>
> knew where it was going after reading only a part of it.<br>
<br>
No, I didn't. I just commented that in the introduction the author seemed to<br>
miss the forest for the trees. After reading further, he doesn't, he was<br>
just oversimplifying for the purposes of introducing the concepts.<br>
<br>
It's an interesting book. The sorts of failures I worked on trying to model<br>
are firmly in "Mediocristan", though. That doesn't rule out the possibility<br>
of Black Swan failure events, but by definition they're impossible to model<br>
effectively. The solution is to model what we can, and to treat the results<br>
as an upper bound on reliability.<br>
<br>
Shawn.<br>
<br>
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End of tahoe-dev Digest, Vol 25, Issue 4<br>
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</blockquote></div><br><br clear="all"><br>-- <br>"... it didn't read like someone out to carve a headstone for humanity."<br>--The Nite Owl<br><a href="http://allmydata.org">http://allmydata.org</a><br><br>
At the edge<br>Symbols become subtleties<br>Consensus Conceptions<br>Where we dance<br><br>ZZ --> <esc>:wq<br><br>Hacking --> Yacking --> Yakking --> .... --> Yak-Wrangling<br>