[tahoe-dev] Reliability tool oddity

[Wayne Scott]

I was running the online reliability tool and hit a weird result.

If you take the default numbers and change the report_span from 5Y to 50Y
the unmaintained numbers get better over time.  At 17 years we have a 60% of
losing data, but by the end of the period the probability drops to 2%.

I assumed these numbers are the expectation that I file would last to that
period, but it looks more like the derivative of that and just gives the
odds that a file will be lost in each 3M period.

http://pubgrid.tahoe-lafs.org/reliability/?drive_lifetime=8Y&k=3&R=7&N=10&delta=1M&check_period=1M&report_period=3M&report_span=50Y

-Wayne
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